Bad news for believers in the future of the electric car; Advanced Automotive Batteries expert Dr. Menahem Anderman has just released a report which suggests that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is far too optimistic with regard to approximating a sticker price for the upcoming Tesla Model 3.
According to the report, Dr. Anderman finds that Musk’s declaration of a $100 per kilowatt-hour average battery cost in 10 years is implausibly ambitious. He suggests that $167 per kilowatt-hour is rather a more likely target for the automaker to reach by 2025.
This could radically change the projected $35k retail price of the Tesla Model 3; according to Dr. Anderman, it’d put the car more in the neighborhood of $50k to $80k.
We’re not alone in feeling that this claim is rather unsubstantiated. Currently, the 60 kWh Model S costs just shy of $70k, with the battery making up about $12k of that (approx. $200 per kWh). The Tesla Model 3 is planned to have a 48 kWh battery, at half the sticker price of the Model S. Granted, that math does look pessimistic, but remember that Tesla’s Gigafactories will be consigned to the duty of driving down the cost of automotive battery cell manufacture as far, and as rapidly, as possible.
Dr. Anderman himself has said that he would love to be proven wrong, and we’d sure like that, too. We just hope there’s enough wiggle room around the new territory being forged to allow Elon Musk to keep his promise, and keep Tesla battery cost low.